ALI Prelim Financials

Highlights of Ayala Land’s financials for 2022 have been released. Here are my key takeaways.

- The PH primary market is still recovering from the pandemic.

- Assuming sales take-up continues its trajectory, the primary market will return to its pre-pandemic level by mid-2025.

- ALI though more bullish than in 2021, still remain cautious.

- The office sector will remain weak in the next few years.

Observations:

1. Sales Reservations

- Sales take up continue their upward trajectory at the same pace as the previous year (+14%).

- Assuming sales reservations grow at the same rate in the coming years, ALI's recovery will return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2025.

2. Project Launches and CAPEX

- ALI's CAPEX for 2022 increased by 13% year-on-year and is forecasted to increase by 17% in 2023. Consequently, ALI aims to increase project launches by 20% in 2023.

- However, the 2023 CAPEX forecast remains 21% lower than its pre-pandemic level. 2023 Project launches remain to be 30% lower than in 2019.

- CAPEX for Offices was lowered significantly (-43%) in 2022. This is a clear sign that ALI isn't confident about this segment.

- CAPEX for Estate Development and Land Acquisition are 29% and 26%, respectively. This signifies the company's thrust to diversify its portfolio.